← Agora Hobby Store Championship
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Agora Hobby Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 11.4% | 7 | 6-0-1 | 92.9% | 77.3% | 69.5% | +9.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |